The Way This Unusual Season Broke the Traditional Coach of the Year Mold.

Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a simple script. It frequently serves as a type of apology. We regret we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who oversaw the biggest resurgence receives the award. In practice, it fuels an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior leadership or merely the greatest upset.

But the latest field is profoundly unique. The list of nominees is exceptionally deep. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning division champions fading and recent underperformers improving together. Under an ordinary year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in this chaotic and entertaining season, he's up against five other exceptional candidates.

Below is how the hypothetical vote could shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters love QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. In the right environment, the QB has been afforded the chance to showcase his otherworldly ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's sustained excellence. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an offense designed solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a heavy dose of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that frees wide receiver targets everywhere. Williams has thrived. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been capable to conjure magic out of broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Almost each decision – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has worked. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the organization with the kind of hype he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme genius but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

In a normal year, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. Yet this isn't a typical campaign!

The area where his candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is in place for long-term success. However Johnson comes up just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around football of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has mastered the off-field aspects, which was not a given following his initial public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching blend of youth and veteran savvy, he trusted newbies. From the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

After an early strong beginning, there was a risk that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year setback caused the team wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking consistent ones. Coen recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are clear. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year argument has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller could have derailed the campaign in October. Instead, it made it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has fallen away after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just a single place ahead of peers.

Still