Keir Starmer's Allies Initiate 'Halt Andy Burnham' Drive to Block Mayor's Commons Comeback

Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly started a concerted effort to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a comeback to parliament. This action comes after the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an impending byelection.

Significant Barriers in the Selection Process

Several members on the party's ruling NEC have reportedly predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection procedure. This is primarily due to the significant presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are anxious to head off any future leadership challenge.

The Labour hierarchy reportedly sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended resignation, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable expense and political risk of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Last year, he caused consternation within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had urged him to run for the Labour leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a return to parliament to possibly contest the party leadership should a contest to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, allies of the Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the level of any scheming, stating he is passionate about his job as mayor and would solely return national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Current Climate and Poll Ratings

Against a backdrop of polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only prominent Labour personality with favourable ratings with the public.

Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple obstacles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the byelection against challenges from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all before any potential leadership challenge.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

High-ranking Labour sources have said that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally commented that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to cease discussion of potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

NEC members have reportedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

Several sources also shared concerns about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. It is also possible the body could enforce an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, a supporter warned against assuming the NEC would automatically reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The trade unions occupy a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently keeping their counsel, sources indicated they would be opposed to anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The seat in question has a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is expected to mount a strong challenge, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to declining health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He is also subject to a standards inquiry related to his membership in an offensive online group.