From Superpower to Rogue State: The Implications of the US Seizure of Venezuela's Maduro

Against the backdrop of the considerable disarray following the United States attacks on Venezuela, the apprehension of leader Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “run” the country and “reclaim the petroleum resources”, there is no doubt – these actions create a deeply alarming precedent.

A Dark Legacy and an Unprecedented Move

The United States has a grim history of interference, invasion and occupation in the region, but this past Saturday morning witnessed its premier large-scale offensive on the continent of South America. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” Trump proclaimed.

The decision to unilaterally attack another state and seize its president – only a few days after he publicly sought an off-ramp – has still wider repercussions. We all have reason to be worried.

Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis

Venezuelans have lived through a dictatorship marked by theft and failure under Mr Maduro, largely considered to have stolen the last election. They now face profound uncertainty at best. Mr Trump has suggested that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and rejected conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far struck a defiant tone – and other elements of the leadership-stricken government are far more intransigent.

A Shift in Global Role

A man who came to office vowing to end foreign wars now says he is “not afraid of boots on the ground”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is turning it into a lawless actor.

He believes that the US’s might allows it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: consider the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He promises that the oil resources of Venezuela means this new undertaking “will pay for itself”.

A Move Devoid of International Legitimacy

George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this illegal attack came lacking any form of UN approval or authorization from lawmakers; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to destroy them.

Put aside the message this sends to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will likely encourage more reckless actions.

The Thin Pretext and True Motives

It is widely rejected the justification that this is concerning narcotics. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently pardoned the past Honduran leader Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself made it clear that he is motivated by the lure of oil as well as a desire to project strength, the worldview of key officials, and the quest for a legacy as his support at home declines.

Tepid International Response and Waning Global Governance

The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The firm response from UN Secretary General António Guterres was notable, but this episode highlights the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could potentially force him to focus on domestic issues once more – but soaring healthcare premiums, economic unhappiness and other domestic scandals make foreign conflicts more appealing.

Barely 12 months into his presidential term. World leaders may live to repent if they remain quiet at this juncture, considering the potential next target.