Everyday Homicides in Mexico Drop Thirty-Seven Percent During Claudia Sheinbaum, As per Government Figures

The average figure of daily homicides per month in Mexico has fallen by more than a third since President Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, according to new administrative figures. Nevertheless, public safety analysts have warned that homicide data might not indicate improved countrywide stability.

Notable Decline in Daily Figures

There was an average of almost 55 murders a day in the month of November as opposed to roughly 87 when Sheinbaum began the presidential office in September. This information was provided by the head of the country’s federal safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily press briefing on Tuesday.

“The outcome in homicides that have been recorded in these past months is extremely important,” Sheinbaum remarked, noting that last month the least amount of murders were recorded for any single November in the past 10 years.

Historical Context and Official Strategy

Fierce drug cartel internal conflicts, coupled with the government’s heavily militarised efforts to take on the cartels, have led to Mexico’s murder rate escalate in the past few years. The figure reached a peak of 36,773 killings in 2020, per the nation's national statistics office.

That gave Mexico a murder figure over four times greater than the US. Since then, murders have been on the decline, dropping to 33,550 last year. The President has attributed her national security strategy for an seemingly sharper drop in homicides in the current year.

At a news briefing in the summer, the Mexican leader said: “There is a plan, there is monitoring of the plan, and we have detailed tracking town by town in some cases. The strategy functions. And we have to persist at it daily.”

The main components of the President's security plan involve:

• Strengthening Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Improving information gathering and investigative efforts.
• Increased cooperation between government authorities.

Analyst Caution and Statistical Limitations

But, public safety experts urged caution that using murder statistics to draw a conclusion of improved security was misleading. This is particularly true considering the uptick in other criminal activities such as people going missing.

“This would be very good news if this was a drop, but I think we must not just look at the homicide data and conclude: ‘Well then, excellent,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexico's criminal organizations. “I would be guardedly optimistic.”

According to the policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings overall declined by over 20% in the first 10 months of the current year versus the same period the previous year. But, missing persons cases have risen by 15% and in some states have risen by as much as 200%.

“Data on homicides is no longer reliable for estimating the context of violence,” argued Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and investigators who do not have the ability or the inclination to accurately identify and categorize bodies. Second, organized [criminals] … have the ability to conceal violence through disappearances.”

Vargas added that relying on month-to-month averages of daily killings was additionally an issue because it might obscure periods when there were particularly spiking numbers of murders.

“Using the per-day mean renders surges of violent crime invisible,” he concluded.

Arrests and Seizures as Measures of Progress

An area where the administration can point to the effectiveness of its safety strategy is on detentions and seizures. Nearly 40,000 people were arrested between October 2024 and November 2025 for high-impact offenses, according to government data. Over 20,000 guns were taken and 311 tonnes of narcotics confiscated.

“Trump cannot claim President Sheinbaum of not acting, because actually she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, thousands of confiscations, and all the operational weakening of criminal groups. It’s very in political terms profitable,” stated Vargas.

Persistent Unrest and Public Frustration

However notwithstanding these efforts, Mexico is still beset by extreme violence, with several states in the grip of cartel-driven conflict. In the previous month there was a notable assassination of a popular local official in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors murdered in the past 12 months.

Weeks later, many thousands of youth demonstrated in Mexico City and across the country to show their anger at corruption and drug violence.

“The government presents [data] in a manner to create a story of security. From a political standpoint it’s highly successful, from a social perspective it’s extremely questionable,” the analyst concluded.